Obama/Warner

Mark Warner is the perfect VP choice for Obama. He's a phenomenally popular white Southern Democrat. When his term as governor of Virginia ended, he left office with approval ratings near 80%. He's done the "real change" thing - he had to, to put up those MVP numbers as the blue leader of a red state.

Warner should also meet with the approval of the business community, because he's been there, done that, too. Before he went into politics, he was a telecom entrepreneur, and he made a few hundred million. And he has some stature on the national scene. A couple of years ago, he was on the cover of the Sunday Times Magazine as a potential presidential candidate.

The downside? Warner is running for the Senate against Jim Gilmore. Odds are Warner will trounce Gilmore, so any Warner change in plans is very much to Gilmore's benefit. And "Senator Jim Gilmore" sounds very scary - he has Bush's skills coupled with a mean, nasty vision. But a Warner vice-presidency might cement 16 years of Democratic control of the White House. That would be almost enough time to repair the damage.

Moderate Republicans For Obama?

I was at a party last night. The host, a middle-aged white Southerner and moderate Republican, is leaning towards Obama. He likes Obama's message of change. He likes Obama's willingness to talk to the other side, both in Washington and around the world. And he's afraid McCain is too much like Bush.

Is he an anomaly, or is this a trend? Is McCain's base an illusion?

Obama Gets It

American politics these days comes down to three things: attack, attack, attack, and be brisk about it. And when someone attacks you, don't bother defending yourself - just counterattack, counterattack, counterattack. Save the well-reasoned point-by-point rebuttals for the News Hour.

The Republicans get this. John Kerry didn't get it, and he got swiftboated.

Obama gets it. His "appalling attack" response to Bush's appeasement canard is top-notch political jiu-jitsu. He leaves Bush bloodied and dazed (granted, not hard). He also drops McCain in the Bush mess, so that any McCain response becomes a defense of failed Bush policies. Sweet.